Because again, allowing just 50 passing yards is impressive...unless your opponents only threw the ball five times all game long a la Georgia Tech.Another interesting adjusted statistic we use that I think you might enjoy:For comparative measures, we control for SoS on metrics like yards per play by juxtaposing the yards per play a team gains with the yards per play their opponent typically gives up. Does anyone know where else I could look?I see why people are talking about BGSU as a possible team to watch out for now, really impressive stats last year and I'm pretty sure they're returning most of their starters on offense.New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be castPress J to jump to the feed. To see the preseason AP and Coaches poll for 2015, click There are so many college football computer rankings. College football rankings can help you answer these questions, but only if you find the right ones. There’s no requirement for coaching experience or a background in analytics. Holding a team to 70% of their average per play yardage is better than holding another team to 75% of their average per play yardage, regardless of tempo or quality of opponent.Edit: One last point -- I don't personally think scoring is a very good metric for gauging offenses or defenses. Given a down, distance and field position, the offense’s expected points is an average of the net points of the next score. The Seminoles won the BCS title the previous year and returned Heisman winning QB Jameis Winston. The difference between Offensive Rating and Floor Percentage, Oliver notes, is the average number of Points Produced per Scoring Possession. Some factors point in their favor. Burke calculates ESPN uses EPA in college football for their FPI rankings, numbers meant to make predictions looking forward. The committee ranked them third behind two one loss teams (Alabama, Oregon). The Colley Matrix does better than win percentage but not nearly as good as raw margin of victory. Analytics also shows which rankings you can safely ignore.The results on the predictive power of rankings are often surprising and counter intuitive. The undefeated 1904 Vanderbilt team scored an average of 52.7 points per game, the most in college football that season, and allowed just four points .
However, the defense declined in 2014, and Florida State no longer dominated opponents. The Terrors were a mix of Methodist college students and high schoolers.
For instance, averaging six yards per play against Florida State's defense last year -- which gave up an average of 4.09 yards per play -- would have been very impressive; just as impressive, by our measure, as averaging nine yards per play against Tennessee, which gave up 6.07 yards per play.IMO, it's an amazing measure for comparing different offenses and defenses because it controls for SoS. Points per drive from short starting field position for the offense (OSD) and opponent offenses (DSD) are calculated on possessions that begin less than 60 yards from the end zone. I was thinking the other day about stats, and I wondered why points per possession isn’t used as a measure of offensive efficiency. It seems more reasonable to wait until later in the season to look at these polls.However, this is a mistake. Comprehensive College Football news, scores, standings, fantasy games, rumors, and more Defensive scores as well as kick and punt returns shouldn't show up in a category for offensive production, but they do. Yet over a huge sample of games, the higher seed wins more than 7 of every 10 games.Will the College Football Playoff committee do this well with their rankings? The humans of AP and Coaches have no games upon which to base their ballots. A lot of points result from a critical mistake or two, so I don't think it's absurd to keep that in consideration.I wanted to try to create a poll using a similar method this year, but I'm not going to pay for cfbstats.
Because allowing 20 points per game is impressive, but much less so if your opponents are only running 55 plays per game.Points per game and yards per game are alright I suppose, but different teams run at different speeds and styles, so it’s kind of unfair to compare, say, Stanford and Oregon by that metric.To control for tempo, we use yards per play.
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